Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f89…1f03 crypto 1560 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%741W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +8.3% -2.0% 60% 60% -4.5%
≤30d 488 +4.3% -5.6% 56% 56% -15.2%
≤90d 1510 +0.7% -8.9% 49% 49% -10.5%
all 1510 +0.7% -8.9% 49% 49% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 49% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -19.1%
15% -25.5% 40% -26.9%
20% -32.8% 36% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses741 / 769
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1510 / 1560
History coverage47d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 55¢ 57¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $5.55 · 2933 history records