Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f8b…39f2 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$621 (-40%) realized −$615 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$664
14 days−$665
30 days−$665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$650
other 26% −$8
sports 6% +$1
world 2% $0
weather 2% −$11
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 35% -55.8%
≤30d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 37% -55.7%
≤90d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 37% -55.7%
all 19 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 37% -55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 37% -55.7%
10% -20.8% 26% -60.0%
15% -28.5% 16% -63.8%
20% -35.5% 11% -67.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$113 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$13 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$11 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $81 −$1 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $914 −$651 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 2h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 94¢ $25 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 94¢ $32 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 21h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $14 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 23h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $24 24h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 75¢ $4 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.85 · official $239.85 (match) · 86 history records