Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f8b…6e15 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%51W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$27
tech 5% +$2
other 5% $0
sports 1% −$14
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 64 -4.4% -13.5% 80% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses51 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage501d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 30? May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $112 −$24 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 25 $114 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 18? Feb 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $660 on February 17? Feb 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 12? Feb 12 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 10 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $91 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $91 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $91 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $88 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $91 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $91 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $90 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $90 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $90 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $90 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $90 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $90 22d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $90 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $90 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $90 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $89 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $89 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $89 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $89 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $89 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $89 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $89 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $89 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $89 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $89 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.13 · official $91.13 (match) · 134 history records