Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f8c…0d01 world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$6
other 20% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 12% -8.1%
≤90d 14 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 7% -9.0%
all 23 -1.8% -11.2% 57% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 4% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 4% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage466d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $54 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $48 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $55 −$5 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $51 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $54 1m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $54 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 8h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $14 11h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $42 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $16 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $24 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $16 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $24 27h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $50 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $18 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $18 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $25 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $25 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 23¢ $0 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 23¢ $17 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 23¢ $12 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records