Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f8d…6f61 other 67 markets active 20d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,388 (-13%) realized −$1,388 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$202
other 28% −$158
tech 18% −$1,107
politics 9% −$136
crypto 1% −$153
sports 1% −$67
economics 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 29% -9.2%
≤90d 29 -11.2% -19.6% 48% 34% -11.1%
all 67 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 27% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 27% -23.0%
10% -25.1% 22% -30.4%
15% -32.4% 15% -37.1%
20% -39.0% 12% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$63 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,388
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage117d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $50 −$10 -21%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? May 26 $50 −$38 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $100 −$56 -56%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 26 $50 −$2 -4%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 26 $101 +$36 +35%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 26 $273 −$34 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $300 −$93 -31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 26 $300 −$10 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $500 −$6 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $880 +$60 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,630 +$216 +13%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 26 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 26 $2,064 −$89 -4%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? May 16 $35 +$15 +42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 16 $53 +$12 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 16 $50 +$59 +117%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 04 $80 +$27 +33%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Apr 04 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Apr 04 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 04 $120 +$32 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $20 +$21 +104%
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2 Jan 29 $100 −$97 -97%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 29 $20 +$18 +88%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 29 $20 +$26 +130%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Jan 29 $20 +$14 +72%
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January? Jan 29 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 29 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 29 $70 +$30 +42%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 29 $100 +$58 +58%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jan 29 $183 +$197 +108%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 29 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? Jan 29 $15 −$7 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 19d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 19d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? SELL No 21¢ $12 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $44 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 53¢ $52 19d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 65¢ $53 19d
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 46¢ $48 19d
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $137 19d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 87¢ $87 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 34¢ $239 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $204 19d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $207 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $290 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 39¢ $122 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $494 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $940 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1,138 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 39¢ $145 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 53¢ $37 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 53¢ $16 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $300 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 39¢ $3 19d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 39¢ $3 19d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY No 80¢ $50 19d
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $62 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1,106 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $500 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $707 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $869 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $200 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records