Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f8d…4bae other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$59 (+47%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$51
sports 40% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.6% +8.2% 50% 50% +8.8%
≤30d 2 +19.6% +8.2% 50% 50% +8.8%
≤90d 2 +19.6% +8.2% 50% 50% +8.8%
all 2 +19.6% +8.2% 50% 50% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 50% +8.8%
10% -2.1% 50% -1.7%
15% -11.6% 50% -11.2%
20% -20.3% 50% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$50 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $51 +$71 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.83 · official $24.83 (match) · 5 history records