Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f8e…21b7 other 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,001 (+0%) realized +$5,923 · open −$3,922
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$9,974per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$48,758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% +$190,190
politics 27% +$41
other 5% −$2,931
sports 0% +$421
crypto 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.7% +13.7% 100% 75% +3.4%
≤30d 26 +74.4% +57.8% 65% 35% -8.1%
≤90d 59 +58.3% +43.2% 49% 31% +6.5%
all 59 +58.3% +43.2% 49% 31% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.2% 31% +6.5%
10% +29.5% 22% -3.7%
15% ← realistic here +17.0% 20% -13.0%
20% +5.5% 19% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,227) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +66% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
27.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,871 vs −$273 · ×25.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.04 per $1 lost it wins $26.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$48,758
Realized+$5,923
Unrealized−$3,922
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions45
Markets (closed)59 / 104
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$9,974
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $6,840 $6,879 +$40 (+1%)
Will England win the World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $6,651 $6,728 +$77 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,784 $5,523 −$2,261 (-29%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $5,550 $5,443 −$107 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,392 $4,099 −$1,293 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $2,596 $3,207 +$611 (+24%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $1,800 $2,067 +$268 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,556 $1,735 +$179 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,665 $1,563 −$1,103 (-41%)
Will Norway win the World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,537 $1,551 +$13 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 79¢ $1,472 $1,430 −$42 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1,537 $1,304 −$233 (-15%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,030 $1,155 +$124 (+12%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $783 $944 +$162 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $697 $696 −$1 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $584 $586 +$3 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $838 $579 −$260 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $529 $504 −$25 (-5%)
Will Japan win the World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $441 $447 +$6 (+1%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $212 $424 +$212 (+100%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $426 $395 −$31 (-7%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? No 98¢ 99¢ $375 $378 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $304 $307 +$3 (+1%)
Will Senegal win the World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $181 $182 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $123 $141 +$18 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $840 +$26 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $445 +$176 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $524 +$97 +18%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $807 +$127 +16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $870 +$64 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,858 +$537 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $475 +$51 +11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $258,000 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $597 +$25 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $574 +$48 +8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $20,000 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $249 +$301 +121%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $107,014 +$895 +1%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 17 $12,753 +$295 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $185,637 +$1,104 +1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $166,277 +$2,425 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $798 −$741 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $2,738 −$2,480 -91%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 16 $87,081 +$41,287 +47%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $41 −$39 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d Jun 14 $7 −$3 -47%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $298 −$292 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 08 $101 +$239 +238%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $104 −$102 -98%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? May 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami O May 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026? May 01 $577 −$11 -2%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 01 $17 −$14 -82%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? May 01 $54 −$54 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? May 01 $69 −$68 -99%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 01 $74 −$73 -99%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 01 $139 −$132 -95%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 01 $127 −$126 -99%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? May 01 $91 −$67 -74%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 m May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $3,174 −$1,301 -41%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $554 −$547 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $1,196 −$1,194 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? May 01 $14 +$116 +852%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 01 $513 +$57 +11%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr) Apr 30 $183 +$2,234 +1218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 9m
Will Portugal win the World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Portugal win the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $37 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 2h
Will Portugal win the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $891 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Portugal win the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $942 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Portugal win the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $942 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,758.45 · official $48,777.86 (match) · 3500 history records