Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5f8f…1ee8 sports 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,717 (+17%) realized +$1,718 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%118W / 148L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$47
other 33% +$1,772
politics 5% −$27
world 4% −$28
crypto 3% −$84
economics 2% −$51
weather 1% +$3
culture 0% +$30
finance 0% +$43
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% -12.3%
≤30d 39 +9.3% -1.1% 51% 51% -0.9%
≤90d 84 -4.9% -13.9% 49% 48% -14.5%
all 266 -8.9% -17.5% 44% 44% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% +6.5%
10% -25.4% 42% -3.7%
15% -32.6% 41% -13.0%
20% -39.2% 34% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$28 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,718
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses118 / 148
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage250d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$71 +140%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$36 +70%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $41 +$57 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$68 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $51 +$101 +197%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 05 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 +$25 +49%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $51 +$39 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $50 +$21 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $51 +$110 +216%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 29 $51 +$96 +188%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $51 +$71 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $51 +$58 +114%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $50 −$14 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $50 +$2 +4%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $51 +$47 +93%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $51 +$31 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 45¢ $51 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 50¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $51 4d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 41¢ $41 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $51 8d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 57¢ $51 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 9d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 53¢ $51 9d
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $51 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $51 13d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $51 14d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 73¢ $50 15d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 54¢ $51 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 17d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 33¢ $51 18d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 21d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 22d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $51 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $71 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.44 · official $49.44 (match) · 449 history records