Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f94…9387 crypto 28 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-12%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -39.6% -45.4% 36% 21% -29.7%
≤30d 28 -39.6% -45.4% 36% 21% -29.7%
≤90d 28 -39.6% -45.4% 36% 21% -29.7%
all 28 -39.6% -45.4% 36% 21% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.4% 21% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -50.6% 18% -36.5%
15% -55.4% 14% -42.6%
20% -59.7% 11% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +181%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$5 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$4 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$9 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records