Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f95…46c4
other · 1538 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$37 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses202 / 1057
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions254
Markets (closed)1259 / 1538
History coverage68d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 254 History 1259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$31
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Findlay Curtis: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 12¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+71%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 30¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+233%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+328%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Over 7¢ 38¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+443%)
Gabriel Martinelli: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 2¢ 32¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1525%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+117%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 9¢ 18¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+94%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+230%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+71%)
Duckens Nazon: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals Yes 8¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Rodrigo Bentancur: 2+ goals Yes 6¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+68%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+429%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordyn Tyson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett and Wesley Hunt be the candidates for the Texas Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jamahl Mosley win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Doc Rivers win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sam Leavitt be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 +299%
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hung Jun 12 $0 $0 -50%
Will Roberto Fernandez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga s Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Adrian Kempe win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Troph Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Brunette win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will John Mateer be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kel'el Ware lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -90%
Marcelo Flores: 2+ shots Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Marcelo Flores: 5+ shots Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Marcelo Flores: 4+ shots Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $0 $0 -88%
Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 12 $0 $0 -86%
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Dplus vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -80%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -50%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $0 $0 -14%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Jun 12 $0 +$4 +3876%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 30% +$11
other 27% −$2
world 22% +$28
politics 8% +$3
tech 4% −$3
crypto 4% +$4
finance 3% −$3
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 14m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 2¢ $0 49m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 56m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 2¢ $0 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Jordan (-3.5) BUY Jordan 2¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Marcelo Flores: 2+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Marcelo Flores: 5+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Marcelo Flores: 4+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Daria Snigur vs. Robin Montgomery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 2¢ $0 4h
Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Ryan Walters win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary el SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) BUY Snigur 2¢ $0 4h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Set 1 Winner: Pieri vs Granwehr BUY Pieri 2¢ $0 6h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY PARIVISION 2¢ $0 6h
Harriet Dart vs. Kamilla Rakhimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 2¢ $0 6h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY PARIVISION 2¢ $0 6h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 9¢ $0 7h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 7¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 6% -6.1%
≤30d 369 +23.0% +11.3% 13% 10% +22.0%
≤90d 1259 -2.9% -12.1% 16% 13% +0.9%
all 1259 -2.9% -12.1% 16% 13% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 13% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 10% -8.8%
15% -28.2% 10% -17.6%
20% -35.2% 9% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.58 · official $51.25 (match) · 3500 history records