Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5f97…10af world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$63
other 12% +$63
politics 4% +$7
weather 3% +$26
sports 3% +$3
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 30 -0.5% -10.0% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 37 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -9.5%
all 66 +13.1% +2.4% 45% 23% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 23% -8.2%
10% -7.4% 21% -17.0%
15% -16.4% 17% -25.0%
20% -24.6% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage529d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 48¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $117 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $88 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $35 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $278 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $124 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $253 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $13 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $3 −$2 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 21 $47 $0 +1%
North Carolina Central vs. Delaware State Mar 04 $4 +$1 +37%
Ducks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-25? Mar 04 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday? Feb 24 $26 +$9 +37%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 23 $2 +$1 +26%
UMKC vs. South Dakota Feb 21 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the match between FC Porto and Sporting CP end in a draw? Feb 21 $3 +$6 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.95 · official $33.95 (match) · 235 history records