Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f9a…1c55 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$56
sports 16% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 54% -7.9%
≤30d 13 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 54% -7.9%
≤90d 13 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 54% -7.9%
all 13 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 54% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 54% -7.9%
10% -12.4% 38% -16.7%
15% -20.9% 31% -24.8%
20% -28.6% 8% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$77 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $226 +$35 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $181 +$44 +24%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$71 -70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $169 +$84 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $154 +$15 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $107 +$47 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $120 −$76 -64%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $29 −$17 -58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $79 +$28 +36%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $71 +$147 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$18 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $135 +$14 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $226 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 78¢ $151 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $252 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $154 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $93 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 41h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 41h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $29 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $107 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $79 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $219 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $71 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $133 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $135 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records