Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f9d…de27 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$4
politics 20% −$2
other 18% $0
economics 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
culture 6% $0
tech 5% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 114 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage156d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $156 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $76 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $155 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $28 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 96¢ $37 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 13d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $33 21d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $33 22d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $39 36d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $39 36d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 114d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 114d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 114d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 114d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $30 114d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $30 114d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $28 114d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $28 114d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 114d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 114d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $36 114d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $36 114d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $41 114d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $41 114d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $40 114d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $40 114d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 114d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $39 114d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $30 114d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $30 114d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 95¢ $31 114d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $31 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 470 history records