Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f9e…5e31 other 40 markets active 3d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-16%) realized −$12 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$1
world 30% +$1
politics 17% −$7
sports 10% −$9
finance 6% +$1
crypto 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.4% -41.6% 38% 38% -55.1%
≤30d 19 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 42% -8.8%
≤90d 29 -25.8% -32.8% 38% 34% -26.0%
all 29 -25.8% -32.8% 38% 34% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 34% -26.0%
10% -39.3% 28% -33.1%
15% -45.1% 24% -39.5%
20% -50.5% 21% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)29 / 40
History coverage58d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +106%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$7 +324%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$9 +134%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 02 $6 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $8 +$2 +28%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 20 $4 −$2 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 10d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $1 10d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 10d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 10d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $2 10d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.47 · official $19.49 (match) · 72 history records