Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa1…b91b weather 1723 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1653W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day81.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$27
14 days+$26
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$21
finance 4% +$1
tech 3% +$1
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 703 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1673 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1673 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1673 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,637
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1653 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions50
Markets (closed)1673 / 1723
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day81.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 1673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $372 $372 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $167 $167 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 90°F or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $614 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,687 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 11m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 39m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,637.46 · official $1,637.46 (match) · 3500 history records