Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5fa1…9915 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,465 (+9%) realized +$1,453 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1,996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$386
7 days+$2,048
14 days+$2,048
30 days+$2,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$2,060
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 24% +3.4%
≤30d 29 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 24% +3.4%
≤90d 29 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 24% +3.4%
all 30 -8.2% -17.0% 30% 23% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 23% +3.4%
10% -24.9% 20% -6.5%
15% -32.2% 13% -15.6%
20% -38.8% 3% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,022) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$41 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,996
Realized+$1,453
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage150d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1,984 $1,996 +$12 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,714 +$280 +16%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -26%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,570 +$140 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $144 +$42 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$68 -62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $346 −$31 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,244 +$494 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $933 −$485 -52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $296 −$60 -20%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $357 +$568 +159%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,142 +$325 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,022 +$479 +47%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -27%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $17 −$3 -17%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$3 -14%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -17%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 −$6 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 −$12 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,199 −$144 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $521 −$18 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,392 +$124 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $947 +$446 +47%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,994 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $747 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $690 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $558 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,714 10h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $329 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $393 18h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,570 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $186 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $144 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 19¢ $42 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $111 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL 42¢ $315 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $346 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $388 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $436 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $444 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $470 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,244 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,995.99 · official $1,995.99 (match) · 85 history records