Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa1…1c2c crypto 652 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate79%518W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$31
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -4.8% -13.9% 82% 81% -12.8%
≤30d 641 -5.5% -14.5% 79% 78% -13.3%
≤90d 652 -5.3% -14.3% 79% 78% -13.1%
all 652 -5.3% -14.3% 79% 78% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 78% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 13% -21.4%
15% -30.0% 4% -29.0%
20% -36.9% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses518 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)652 / 652
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 652 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1265 history records