Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fa2…6df9 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,480 (-8%) realized −$1,492 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 55L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,110
7 days−$1,474
14 days−$2,987
30 days−$1,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -27.2% -34.2% 35% 33% -28.3%
≤30d 98 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 42% -18.7%
≤90d 98 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 42% -18.7%
all 98 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 42% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 42% -18.7%
10% -26.3% 38% -26.4%
15% -33.4% 35% -33.5%
20% -39.9% 30% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$137 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$1,492
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage19d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Dynamo Esports 67¢ 66¢ $682 $677 −$5 (-1%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 27¢ 100¢ $18 $68 +$50 (+272%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 70¢ 47¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $884 −$728 -82%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $336 +$314 +93%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $232 −$220 -95%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $44 +$63 +143%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $352 −$352 -100%
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 16 $203 −$18 -9%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $97 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $65 +$31 +48%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $58 +$90 +155%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $202 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $614 −$186 -30%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $16 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$107 +59%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $158 +$100 +63%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu Jun 13 $21 +$29 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $91 +$67 +73%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$28 +137%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $135 −$135 -100%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $121 −$121 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs DragonClaw (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - FRAG T Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 12 $138 −$10 -8%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $436 −$436 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $61 −$56 -92%
Lyon (Doubles): Arias/Ingildsen vs Isaro/Poonacha Jun 12 $463 +$598 +129%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $844 +$44 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $197 +$123 +62%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $102 +$194 +190%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $260 +$204 +79%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 70¢ $101 59m
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $318 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $53 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $317 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 27¢ $16 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 26¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $83 19h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $254 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $45 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $17 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $66 21h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $96 21h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $106 27h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 40¢ $44 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 61¢ $50 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 57¢ $106 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $645 37h
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel SELL Chelsea Fontenel 42¢ $158 37h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $9 42h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $31 42h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 92¢ $16 43h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 87¢ $8 43h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 91¢ $27 43h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 91¢ $27 43h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 85¢ $19 43h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $21 43h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 58¢ $101 43h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $113 44h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $37 44h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $6 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.08 · official $794.13 · 339 history records