Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5fa7…a97b other 10 markets active 2d ago coverage 254d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+6%) realized +$64 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 37% +$45
other 33% +$13
politics 27% +$3
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.0% +3.1% 100% 100% +3.1%
≤30d 1 +14.0% +3.1% 100% 100% +3.1%
≤90d 3 +11.7% +1.1% 100% 67% +1.3%
all 9 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 33% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 33% -3.0%
10% -11.3% 11% -12.2%
15% -19.9% 0% -20.7%
20% -27.7% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage254d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $158 $159 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $141 +$20 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 06 $118 +$23 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $116 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 04 $101 +$9 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $20 $0 +2%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $194 +$3 +1%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $158 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $160 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $141 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 83¢ $118 75d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $116 95d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $101 193d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 96¢ $71 222d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 226d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 228d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 236d
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 238d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 81¢ $5 244d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 256d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 88¢ $99 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.46 · official $159.46 (match) · 25 history records