Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa8…39c2 weather 598 markets active 10h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$576 (+25%) realized +$448 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%70W / 524L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$1
14 days−$143
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$632
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -19.3% -27.0% 13% 13% -13.0%
≤30d 242 -53.3% -57.7% 6% 6% -24.6%
≤90d 594 -9.4% -18.0% 12% 12% -3.9%
all 594 -9.4% -18.0% 12% 12% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 12% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 11% -13.1%
15% -33.0% 11% -21.5%
20% -39.6% 10% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$3 · ×9.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses70 / 524
Open positions3
Markets (closed)594 / 598
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 75¢ $4 $130 +$125 (+2897%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+152%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 311 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$46 +1024%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$48 +2400%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$14 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$3 +87%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$18 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 5¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.36 · official $145.71 (match) · 2843 history records