Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fa8…dc88
world · 31 markets active 4h ago
4.0score
+$9 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$105
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses26 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage144d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? No 99¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? May 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $107 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $106 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 13 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $102 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $396 +$7 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $394 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $385 +$9 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $300 +$5 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $365 +$16 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $357 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 01 $352 +$5 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $346 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 24 $342 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 21 $336 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 19 $329 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $323 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $300 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $289 +$32 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $290 −$10 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$8
other 14% +$7
economics 10% −$9
finance 3% +$2
tech 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $105 3h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 3h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $108 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? SELL No 100¢ $108 19d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $108 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $103 35d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $102 59d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $101 69d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $99 79d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 80d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $396 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $394 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 98¢ $385 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 98¢ $300 97d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $365 100d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 98¢ $357 103d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $352 105d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $346 108d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $342 110d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $336 113d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $329 118d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $323 120d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 -10.9% -19.4% 88% 0% -12.3%
all 30 -11.8% -20.2% 87% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -27.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -34.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -41.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.05 · official $105.05 (match) · 59 history records