Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa9…9945 sports 816 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$667 (-12%) realized −$690 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%268W / 538L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day88.5pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$71
14 days−$461
30 days−$712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$531
other 17% −$148
crypto 3% −$8
world 2% −$18
politics 1% +$18
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 35% -15.2%
≤30d 806 -23.7% -30.9% 33% 30% -22.1%
≤90d 806 -23.7% -30.9% 33% 30% -22.1%
all 806 -23.7% -30.9% 33% 30% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 30% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 27% -29.6%
15% -43.6% 24% -36.4%
20% -49.1% 21% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$690
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses268 / 538
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions10
Markets (closed)806 / 816
History coverage18d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day88.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 44¢ 46¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 86¢ $7 $11 +$5 (+71%)
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+166%)
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+174%)
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+173%)
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+173%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will OG Anunoby Jr. be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Gabriel Bonfim be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 475 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $9 +$11 +122%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$12 +113%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$10 -48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$13 +122%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$10 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$13 +140%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$13 -33%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $12 +$6 +52%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $14 +$4 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $14 +$5 +38%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $14 +$10 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 +$19 +48%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 45¢ $2 2h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 8¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 13¢ $3 3h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 10¢ $8 4h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 10¢ $0 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $7 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 48¢ $5 8h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 48¢ $2 8h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 48¢ $2 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $8 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $9 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $1 20h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $8 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $8 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $3 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $4 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $3 23h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 2¢ $1 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $11 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $11 28h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Ryan Seggerman 46¢ $14 32h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 32¢ $10 32h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 47¢ $8 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.60 · official $68.60 (match) · 1838 history records