Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa9…a36d sports 1030 markets active 2d ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,628 (-3%) realized −$8,628 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%401W / 622L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$306est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$660
30 days−$942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$15,275
other 44% −$23,712
world 1% +$335
crypto 1% −$784
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +47.5% +33.4% 57% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 95 +5.1% -4.9% 36% 35% -20.2%
≤90d 230 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 34% -25.5%
all 1023 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 38% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 38% -11.9%
10% -18.0% 37% -20.3%
15% -25.9% 35% -28.0%
20% -33.2% 32% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$274 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses401 / 622
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$306
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1023 / 1030
History coverage220d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1023 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$16 -51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 +$25 +180%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$7 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $144 −$141 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $55 +$90 +163%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$36 +190%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $159 −$157 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $105 +$167 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $105 +$1 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $55 +$50 +90%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $203 −$163 -80%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 −$18 -97%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $113 +$54 +48%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $27 +$26 +96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $54 −$53 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $35 −$28 -81%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $50 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$17 -94%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $165 −$147 -89%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1,333 −$868 -65%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1,013 −$988 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $56 +$140 +250%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $31 +$100 +325%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $56 +$295 +522%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $20 +$32 +158%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $51 +$105 +206%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $46 +$61 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 +$22 +86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $52 +$54 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $51 +$56 +109%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $227 +$293 +129%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 −$18 -70%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5 May 31 $5 −$4 -72%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $142 −$140 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $54 −$53 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 +$3 +50%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. BUY 1¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $19 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 35¢ $14 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Spain BUY 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti v BUY 23¢ $11 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spr BUY 25¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 99¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 77¢ $20 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 51¢ $14 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $144 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $145 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 42¢ $30 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 33¢ $26 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $55 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 48¢ $13 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $6 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türk BUY 2¢ $15 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 15¢ $0 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 43¢ $159 7d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 17¢ $51 7d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 18¢ $41 7d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 10¢ $10 7d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 10¢ $10 7d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $272 7d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 38¢ $105 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2791 history records