Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fad…4ba7 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$182 (+12%) realized +$242 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$318
14 days+$259
30 days+$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$374
other 34% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +100.1% +81.1% 75% 75% +55.9%
≤30d 16 +22.4% +10.8% 44% 44% +44.0%
≤90d 17 +15.2% +4.2% 41% 41% +37.9%
all 26 -11.3% -19.7% 35% 35% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 35% +25.9%
10% -27.4% 35% +13.9%
15% -34.4% 35% +2.9%
20% -40.8% 35% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$18 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized+$242
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage184d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $135 −$15 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $94 +$44 (+88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $63 +$23 (+57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $29 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $11 −$19 (-62%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 18¢ $26 $9 −$17 (-65%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ $58 $6 −$52 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $289 +$211 +73%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $96 +$123 +127%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$30 +300%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $95 −$20 -21%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $20 +$21 +101%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $72 +$232 +323%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$6 -32%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $10 +$10 +101%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$17 +86%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $18 −$18 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $35 −$35 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Dec 22 $10 +$7 +75%
Lakers vs. Clippers Dec 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Dec 21 $28 +$21 +74%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $27 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $29 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $29 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 9h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $289 9h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 25¢ $10 5d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $20 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Iceland 44¢ $20 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 44¢ $70 9d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 20¢ $75 10d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $20 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 10d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 12d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 25¢ $43 13d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 13d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.39 · official $447.59 (match) · 112 history records