Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fae…f73a politics 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$9
other 27% −$3
sports 22% −$8
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% −$1
world 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.0% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 89 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage202d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $263 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $262 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $262 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $521 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $264 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $265 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $530 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 29 $265 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $527 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $265 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $265 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $265 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $531 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $265 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $267 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 07 $269 −$2 -1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 05 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $260 $0 -0%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $260 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $262 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $262 15h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $262 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $262 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $262 15d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $262 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $262 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 23d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $263 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $263 26d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 35d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 35d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 37d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $263 38d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $263 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $263 40d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $263 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 44d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 45d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 46d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 47d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 67d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $264 67d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 68d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 69d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 69d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 69d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $264 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $264 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records