Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fae…4079 crypto 545 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40,363 (-37%) realized −$40,363 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%113W / 498L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$938est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,239
7 days−$30,665
14 days−$36,917
30 days−$41,707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$25,938
sports 44% −$17,418
crypto 11% +$2,790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -91.2% -92.1% 2% 2% -70.0%
≤30d 104 -75.8% -78.1% 8% 8% -46.2%
≤90d 611 -6.6% -15.5% 18% 18% -44.7%
all 611 -6.6% -15.5% 18% 18% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 18% -44.7%
10% -23.6% 17% -50.0%
15% -31.0% 16% -54.8%
20% -37.7% 14% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$165 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40,363
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses113 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$938
Open positions0
Markets (closed)611 / 545
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 611 Trades
no open positions (480 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $34 −$78 -228%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $1,375 50m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 51¢ $3,044 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3,058 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 6¢ $688 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,056 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,049 2d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,053 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,047 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,045 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,041 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,055 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $2,141 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,718 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,955 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,976 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,955 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,911 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4,073 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $493 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,069 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4,675 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5,868 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $76 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $52 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $88 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $62 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 20¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records