Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5F 0x5faf…1183 sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,532 (-5%) realized −$19,908 · open −$3,624
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 90L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,413per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$5,905est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$51,867
crypto 16% +$20,918
other 2% −$8,786
world 2% −$7,122
politics 1% +$2,132
tech 0% +$115
culture 0% −$1,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -34.8% -41.1% 23% 23% -33.0%
≤30d 59 -8.5% -17.2% 32% 32% -20.0%
≤90d 83 -17.5% -25.3% 30% 30% -20.4%
all 129 -14.7% -22.8% 30% 29% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 29% -17.8%
10% -30.2% 29% -25.7%
15% ← realistic here -36.9% 29% -32.9%
20% -43.1% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$4,924) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,298 vs −$3,197 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,269
Realized−$19,908
Unrealized−$3,624
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$5,905
Open positions8
Markets (closed)129 / 136
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$3,413
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 28¢ 30¢ $1,292 $1,361 +$69 (+5%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $589 $344 −$244 (-42%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $246 $200 −$46 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $245 $184 −$61 (-25%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $137 $138 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 18¢ 74¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+308%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 0¢ $2,880 $18 −$2,862 (-99%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $500 $3 −$497 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8,250 −$8,250 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $10,380 −$10,305 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $7,472 −$7,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,200 −$1,199 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,202 +$6,985 +218%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,083 +$3,916 +127%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $7,165 +$4,873 +68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7,343 −$7,250 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $3,505 −$3,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $18,941 +$29,935 +158%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $2,970 −$2,970 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,977 −$2,977 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,836 −$4,836 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,323 −$3,323 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8,473 −$8,473 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $5,806 −$5,806 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $7,680 −$7,680 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7,800 −$7,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12,586 −$12,586 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $7,953 −$7,953 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $2,176 −$2,158 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,442 +$13,558 +394%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $7,186 +$13,390 +186%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $3,552 +$3,448 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7,800 +$7,200 +92%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $3,272 −$3,272 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $12,058 −$12,058 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $3,164 −$3,164 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,279 −$4,279 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,629 −$5,629 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $5,110 −$5,110 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $232 −$232 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,750 +$11,250 +300%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $3,770 +$6,230 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9,556 +$5,446 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 11 $5,873 −$5,873 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $556 −$556 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? Jun 11 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,200 +$7,800 +354%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,600 +$5,400 +117%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2,915 +$7,085 +243%
Will MOUZ win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 23 $1,948 −$1,948 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 40m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 47m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 54m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 55m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $2,946 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $54 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $119 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $412 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $528 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $412 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $412 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,269.05 · official $2,259.07 (match) · 3500 history records