Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fb3…88c1 sports 1334 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,980 (-13%) realized −$9,002 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%632W / 716L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,324
7 days−$2,299
14 days−$2,219
30 days−$2,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$6,691
other 5% +$79
culture 0% −$48
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$6
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -30.1% -36.7% 39% 39% -45.6%
≤30d 297 -12.7% -21.0% 48% 48% -26.7%
≤90d 726 -23.1% -30.4% 46% 45% -26.2%
all 1348 -17.8% -25.7% 47% 46% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 46% -21.5%
10% -32.8% 44% -29.0%
15% -39.3% 40% -35.9%
20% -45.2% 33% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$44 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$9,002
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses632 / 716
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1348 / 1334
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $39 $67 +$28 (+74%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-40%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Western Michigan (-9.5) Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Saints vs. Panthers Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Jets vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5 Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5 Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5 Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
76ers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Panthers vs. Packers Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Steelers vs. Bengals Jun 18 $10 −$15 -146%
Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5 Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Bowling (-14.5) Jun 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-6.5) Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5 Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5 Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Panthers vs. 49ers Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5 Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
O/U 50.5 Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
49ers vs. Texans Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5 Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $39 +$31 +79%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $82 +$40 +49%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 Jun 18 $44 +$16 +36%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $74 +$26 +35%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $38 −$37 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) Jun 18 $64 −$63 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 18 $38 +$22 +59%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $42 +$30 +72%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$26 +59%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $43 +$27 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 32m
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $32 33m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $0 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $4 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $3 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $1 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $0 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $1 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $1 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $1 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $1 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 40¢ $2 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 40¢ $3 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 40¢ $8 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 34¢ $14 8h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 9h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 9h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 73¢ $37 9h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 74¢ $27 9h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 74¢ $24 9h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 74¢ $24 9h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 67¢ $27 10h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 75¢ $30 10h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 62¢ $51 10h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $37 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $39 11h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $40 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 58¢ $18 13h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 57¢ $24 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.37 · official $229.37 (match) · 3500 history records