Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fb5…3444 sports 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%116W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$29
14 days−$12
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% $0
other 23% −$28
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -17.4% -25.2% 38% 37% -13.2%
≤30d 270 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 40% -10.2%
≤90d 271 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 40% -10.2%
all 271 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 40% -10.2%
10% -21.4% 38% -18.8%
15% -29.0% 34% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses116 / 155
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions18
Markets (closed)271 / 289
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+82%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 80¢ 62¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? No 67¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 81¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 77¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 20¢ 38¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 67¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Yes 60¢ 63¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 19¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 8¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $2 +$2 +65%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +216%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$4 -44%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 +$5 +37%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +233%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +88%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $1 16m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 29m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $3 38m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $2 49m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 54m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 54m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 54m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 83¢ $4 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $2 58m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 59m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $3 1h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $0 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Steve Garcia 41¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $4 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $3 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 77¢ $4 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 81¢ $4 3h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL LYON 100¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.44 · official $76.43 (match) · 836 history records