Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fb8…9dff crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$79 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%88W / 3L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$66
14 days+$18
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$15
other 8% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 57% +6.9%
≤30d 20 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 25% -7.4%
≤90d 39 -1.0% -10.4% 92% 15% -6.8%
all 91 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 7% -8.2%
10% -18.4% 4% -17.0%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.0%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses88 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage159d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 66¢ 2¢ $52 $1 −$51 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$12 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $62 +$10 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$5 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$29 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $47 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 03 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? May 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? Apr 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $46 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $75 +$24 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Apr 04 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 01 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Mar 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 17? Mar 17 $55 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 16? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 13? Mar 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 12? Mar 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 9? Mar 10 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $48 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $36 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $62 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $48 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $52 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $51 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $50 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $49 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $50 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 39d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $47 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? BUY No 99¢ $47 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $46 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.81 · official $48.81 (match) · 182 history records