Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5fbb…53c4 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,275 (-17%) realized −$3,318 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%51W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$370
14 days−$556
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$3,088
sports 7% −$70
politics 2% −$190
world 1% +$5
finance 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +39.9% +26.6% 88% 88% +18.5%
≤30d 20 -21.7% -29.1% 50% 50% -23.4%
≤90d 64 -26.7% -33.6% 39% 36% -37.1%
all 103 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 42% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 42% -26.3%
10% -31.5% 33% -33.4%
15% -38.1% 23% -39.8%
20% -44.2% 19% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$141 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized−$3,318
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses51 / 52
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)103 / 111
History coverage249d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 39¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $46 $53 +$7 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$12 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $158 +$38 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $369 +$193 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$52 +26%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $707 +$356 +50%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $485 −$479 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $304 −$205 -68%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 20 $180 −$174 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? May 20 $92 −$3 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $465 +$285 +61%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $101 +$49 +49%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $200 +$165 +82%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $466 +$25 +5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $473 −$465 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $298 −$17 -6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova May 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 06 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 0 Brentford FC? Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $200 +$219 +110%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $200 +$48 +24%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 23 $200 −$199 -100%
Madrid Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osaka Apr 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $200 +$49 +24%
Jarrod Bowen: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 19 $100 +$111 +111%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $110 −$83 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $71 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $46 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 30¢ $402 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $197 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $196 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $34 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $114 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $154 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $158 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 7d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 9d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,063 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.16 · official $1,176.58 · 285 history records