Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5fbf…bcab sports 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,620 (+5%) realized +$1,621 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%114W / 110L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$371est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$163
14 days+$308
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$1,190
other 18% +$158
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.5% -3.6% 63% 58% +7.1%
≤30d 43 +2.4% -7.3% 53% 51% +2.0%
≤90d 188 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 47% -5.5%
all 224 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 44% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 44% -5.3%
10% -21.6% 40% -14.4%
15% -29.1% 35% -22.6%
20% -36.1% 26% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$66 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$1,621
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses114 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$371
Open positions3
Markets (closed)224 / 227
History coverage246d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $119 +$59 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 +$54 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 −$17 -92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $58 +$21 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 +$52 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $38 +$21 +54%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $135 +$69 +51%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $38 +$20 +52%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 +$50 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $59 +$32 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$22 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$12 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $78 +$59 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$19 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$21 +262%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 +$39 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 13 $30 −$3 -11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $115 −$112 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $164 −$52 -32%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $7 +$5 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $178 −$66 -37%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $83 +$68 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $55 −$49 -89%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $77 −$38 -49%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $88 −$75 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $69 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $89 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $119 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $89 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 41¢ $39 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 4¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $18 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $58 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $39 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $69 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.32 · official $213.33 (match) · 909 history records