Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fbf…bb54 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-24%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$67
sports 18% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -41.0%
≤30d 9 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -41.0%
≤90d 9 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -41.0%
all 9 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 33% -41.0%
10% -36.6% 22% -46.7%
15% -42.7% 11% -51.8%
20% -48.4% 11% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $46 +$5 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$17 -57%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $4 6m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $6 7m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 8m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 10m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 9h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 24¢ $51 10h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $46 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 15¢ $13 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $31 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.08 · official $66.08 (match) · 22 history records