Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fc0…9f3c other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52 (-4%) realized −$49 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$103
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$101
sports 39% −$156
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +58.7% +43.6% 100% 100% +43.2%
≤90d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 82% 18% -15.9%
all 15 -4.8% -13.9% 87% 13% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 13% -15.2%
10% -22.1% 13% -23.3%
15% -29.7% 13% -30.7%
20% -36.6% 7% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$141 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $420 $417 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 +$103 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $186 +$125 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $140 −$139 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? May 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? May 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? May 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 3? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $144 −$143 -99%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $12 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.98 · official $416.98 (match) · 30 history records