Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fc2…dcbc other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$10
other 38% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% +$1
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.0% -7.7% 73% 9% -7.7%
≤30d 12 +4.6% -5.4% 75% 17% -6.7%
≤90d 22 -1.5% -10.9% 64% 9% -7.7%
all 63 -2.4% -11.7% 57% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -8.5%
10% -20.2% 2% -17.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $39 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $13 +$4 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $1 $0 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 01 $10 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? May 31 $10 $0 -1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 26 $4 $0 -12%
Will Trump say "Biden" this week? May 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $12 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 13 $1 $0 -29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $12 $0 -2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 09 $1 $0 -22%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $43 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $39 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $38 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $36 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $1 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $5 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $31 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $4 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $35 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $36 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $0.71 (match) · 216 history records