Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fc3…0670 sports 776 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$669 (-1%) realized −$449 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%292W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$1,116est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$487
7 days+$55
14 days−$1,183
30 days+$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$292
other 5% −$332
world 2% −$274
finance 2% +$313
politics 1% +$307
crypto 1% −$269
tech 1% −$266
economics 0% −$370
culture 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +5.4% -4.6% 43% 43% -8.4%
≤30d 195 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -5.7%
≤90d 615 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 39% -12.2%
all 771 -3.4% -12.6% 38% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 38% -10.4%
10% -21.0% 37% -19.0%
15% -28.6% 37% -26.8%
20% -35.6% 36% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$96 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$449
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses292 / 479
Est. fees paid−$1,116
Open positions5
Markets (closed)771 / 776
History coverage121d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 771 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 42¢ 100¢ $100 $238 +$138 (+138%)
Daniel Altmaier vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 43¢ 40¢ $125 $118 −$7 (-6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $173 $6 −$167 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$129 +128%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Tommy Paul vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$112 +110%
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $99 −$97 -98%
Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $96 −$94 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $143 −$141 -98%
Ben Shelton vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +92%
Tommy Paul vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $198 −$194 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $98 −$96 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $64 −$62 -98%
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $154 +$112 +73%
Maks Kasnikowski vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $80 +$98 +122%
Zizou Bergs vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$105 +148%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $75 +$135 +180%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$43 +84%
Alexei Popyrin vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$231 +226%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$200 +196%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$204 +200%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$110 +109%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Parry vs. Seidel: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $98 +$69 +71%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $95 +$237 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Collignon vs. Agut: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $102 +$92 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $96 −$10 -11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $186 +$136 +73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $92 +$158 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$139 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $237 +$155 +66%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Daniel Altmaier vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $127 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 42¢ $102 1h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $229 1h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $100 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $97 16h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 35¢ $102 26h
Tommy Paul vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 44¢ $102 26h
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $213 27h
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 44¢ $99 34h
Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 44¢ $96 34h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $102 34h
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $102 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $143 43h
Tommy Paul vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 41¢ $102 2d
Ben Shelton vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $51 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $198 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $98 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 18¢ $64 2d
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $266 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $154 3d
Maks Kasnikowski vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $179 3d
Zizou Bergs vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $176 3d
Maks Kasnikowski vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 44¢ $80 3d
Zizou Bergs vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 40¢ $71 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 4d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.41 · official $377.41 (match) · 1589 history records