Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fcb…e95f
other · 71 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$358 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$360 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage586d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 3 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $503 +$334 +66%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 06 $36 −$14 -39%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 22 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Mar 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
North Korea missile test by September 15? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $19 +$6 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $12 +$10 +81%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Jan 23 $27 +$2 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jan 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January? Jan 21 $6 −$5 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% −$559
sports 18% +$74
politics 6% +$130
world 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $11 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 3¢ $0 23h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 17¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 39h
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 28d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 28d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 59¢ $13 28d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 28d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 29d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 29d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 43% -1.2%
≤30d 16 -21.4% -28.9% 31% 31% +40.2%
≤90d 43 -35.1% -41.3% 26% 26% -2.5%
all 68 -22.8% -30.1% 34% 28% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 28% -17.0%
10% -36.8% 24% -24.9%
15% -42.9% 16% -32.2%
20% -48.5% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.94 · official $22.94 (match) · 186 history records