Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5fd7…3fa5 sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$455 (-12%) realized −$454 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$200
14 days−$204
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$150
other 13% −$321
crypto 4% −$2
politics 2% +$12
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 22% -49.2%
≤30d 16 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 38% -1.0%
≤90d 22 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 41% -5.0%
all 86 -32.1% -38.6% 38% 35% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 35% -20.4%
10% -44.4% 33% -28.0%
15% -49.8% 28% -35.0%
20% -54.7% 22% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$34 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$454
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage600d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 82¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $98 +$3 +3%
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 21 $32 +$10 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$77 +216%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$39 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $76 +$98 +129%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $157 +$186 +119%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $47 +$77 +164%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $79 +$19 +24%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 10 $87 +$13 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $143 +$3 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 28 $97 +$14 +15%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $20 +$12 +61%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Oct 21 $20 +$10 +49%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 1 Oct 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Oct 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Oct 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Oct 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Vikings vs. Steelers Oct 04 $86 +$114 +133%
Commanders vs. Falcons Sep 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State Sep 23 $22 +$78 +354%
Iowa vs. Rutgers Sep 23 $56 +$44 +79%
North Texas vs. Army Sep 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Jul 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Phillies vs. Pirates Jun 30 $44 +$56 +127%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $69 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 26¢ $26 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 32¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $51 9d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $76 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $157 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 27¢ $26 32d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $21 32d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 32d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $69 33d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $62 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 80¢ $79 40d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $87 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? BUY Yes $5 114d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $20 231d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $143 235d
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) BUY T1 87¢ $97 239d
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) BUY CTBC Flying Oyster 62¢ $20 239d
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) BUY 100 Thieves 13¢ $25 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.55 · official $18.55 (match) · 159 history records