Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fdc…ba63 politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$1
world 28% +$2
politics 27% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 14% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 38% 12% -9.0%
all 34 +0.4% -9.2% 35% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage294d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $58 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $37 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $13 +$3 +23%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $86 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $27 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $26 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Sep 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $37 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $18 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $9 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $40 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $41 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $5 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $21 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.50 · official $46.17 (match) · 118 history records