Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5fde…e035 crypto 43 markets active 4h ago coverage 10d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$849 (+43%) realized +$855 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days+$880
14 days+$886
30 days+$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$103
sports 34% +$653
crypto 26% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +72.4% +56.0% 55% 50% +45.9%
≤30d 40 +72.0% +55.6% 58% 52% +45.9%
≤90d 40 +72.0% +55.6% 58% 52% +45.9%
all 40 +72.0% +55.6% 58% 52% +45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.6% 52% +45.9%
10% +40.7% 45% +32.0%
15% +27.1% 42% +19.2%
20% +14.7% 35% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +99% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$20 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized+$855
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage10d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $147 $142 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$35 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$7 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$43 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $149 +$185 +124%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 +$226 +1496%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 +$125 +276%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 −$26 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $114 +$125 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $30 +$59 +196%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $157 +$179 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $45 +$112 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 +$36 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $83 +$36 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +236%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +414%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $85 +$35 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $36 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $153 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $149 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.43 · official $291.43 (match) · 98 history records