Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fdf…77ce crypto 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%149W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$11
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 154 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 1% -10.2%
≤90d 154 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 1% -10.2%
all 154 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses149 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records