Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fe0…83c7 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,449 (-28%) realized −$2,713 · open +$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$127
14 days−$2,383
30 days−$2,383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2,482
sports 40% +$363
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 27% -15.5%
≤30d 19 -22.2% -29.6% 26% 21% -61.2%
≤90d 19 -22.2% -29.6% 26% 21% -61.2%
all 19 -22.2% -29.6% 26% 21% -61.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 21% -61.2%
10% -36.3% 21% -65.0%
15% -42.5% 21% -68.3%
20% -48.1% 16% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$247 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$864
Realized−$2,713
Unrealized+$264
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $500 $801 +$301 (+60%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $100 $62 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$297 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$235 +230%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 +$431 +420%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $302 +$108 +36%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $357 −$350 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $417 −$406 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 4h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 30h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 34h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $306 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $104 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY 30¢ $102 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $337 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 29¢ $102 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $433 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 28¢ $102 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 27¢ $102 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $411 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $306 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 5¢ $309 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 10¢ $308 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in BUY 18¢ $307 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands vs. BUY 7¢ $308 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $863.69 · official $863.69 (match) · 40 history records