Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fe1…0981 crypto 331 markets active 4h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$83,578 (+10%) realized +$83,578 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%158W / 173L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,536per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$64,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +36.3% +23.3% 67% 67% +59.9%
≤30d 37 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 49% -2.3%
≤90d 331 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 47% -16.5%
all 331 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 47% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 47% -16.5%
10% -20.0% 47% -24.5%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 45% -31.8%
20% -34.8% 44% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$3,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,467 vs −$2,626 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83,578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses158 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)331 / 331
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$2,536
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 331 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $9,508 +$11,167 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $320 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $2,441 −$2,441 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $2,581 +$2,169 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2,570 +$1,685 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $1,459 +$2,196 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $2,474 −$2,360 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $4,661 −$4,470 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $2,051 −$1,972 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 05 $709 +$332 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $1,864 −$1,792 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET Jun 05 $3,197 −$3,060 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $523 +$1,016 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 05 $7,470 +$7,499 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $867 −$825 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $1,767 +$1,316 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $1,420 +$1,043 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 04 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $2,094 +$1,878 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $1,921 +$2,292 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $3,160 −$3,038 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $4,905 +$2,928 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $4,999 +$3,940 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $6,321 +$6,517 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $1,206 +$1,034 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $6,660 −$6,415 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $3,093 −$3,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $5,792 −$5,625 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 04 $2,525 +$1,923 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $4,652 −$4,652 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 04 $622 −$586 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $1,555 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $3,411 +$3,032 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $1,123 −$1,071 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 20 $308 +$189 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $3,128 −$3,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $1,871 +$2,287 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $953 −$914 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 05 $4,787 −$4,583 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 05 $1,648 −$1,600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 05 $2,981 +$3,454 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 05 $4,064 −$3,896 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 05 $3,454 −$3,328 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 26 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10PM ET Apr 26 $2,979 −$2,979 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 26 $8,100 −$8,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $20,675 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $91 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $421 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $513 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $514 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $516 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $517 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $497 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $517 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $520 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $521 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $521 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $522 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $260 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $521 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $340 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $520 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $188 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $521 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records