Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5fe3…a5df crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+5%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$36
sports 8% +$68
other 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 62% -5.2%
≤30d 37 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 62% -5.2%
≤90d 37 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 62% -5.2%
all 37 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 62% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 62% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 35% -14.3%
15% -19.3% 27% -22.6%
20% -27.2% 22% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$18 +237%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +159%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records