Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5fe6…d55c crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$96
crypto 22% −$7
sports 3% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +24.8% +12.9% 41% 39% -8.8%
≤30d 49 +24.8% +12.9% 41% 39% -8.8%
≤90d 49 +24.8% +12.9% 41% 39% -8.8%
all 49 +24.8% +12.9% 41% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.9% 39% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here +2.1% 33% -17.5%
15% -7.8% 33% -25.5%
20% -16.8% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage3d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$22 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$5 +484%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $203 +$219 +108%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $636 −$30 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $27 −$26 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $172 −$78 -45%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$18 -12%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $41 +$102 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$49 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$46 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $55 +$11 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records