Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fe8…4dd8 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$301 (-0%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 106L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,067per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$61
other 42% −$1,039
sports 10% +$770
economics 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -17.7% -25.6% 8% 1% -11.4%
all 128 -0.9% -10.4% 17% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 9% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,201) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$20 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $938 $938 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $890 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,958 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $439 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $821 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,274 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,371 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $2,055 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $188 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $216 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $245 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $757 −$757 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,563 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,044 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $3,340 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,898 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $549 +$2 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $3,671 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,253 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2,425 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,053 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4,288 −$4 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,207 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,849 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $838 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $938 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $908 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $909 6h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $883 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $885 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $560 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $561 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $438 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $439 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $891 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $920 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $921 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $878 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $820 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $821 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $787 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $994 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $995 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $874 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $875 17d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 17d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $883 17d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $708 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $937.64 · official $937.64 (match) · 430 history records