Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fe9…c72c other 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 22% −$15
economics 9% −$7
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$2
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 226 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage127d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $821 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $233 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $625 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $402 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $303 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $371 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $539 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $423 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $515 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $203 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 23h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 26h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 27h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 31h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 32h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 35h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 38h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 39h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $13 44h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $13 45h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 47h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1320 history records