Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fe9…1f9c politics 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,012 (+1%) realized +$2,012 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%34W / 116L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,153per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$25
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$84
other 38% −$57
sports 13% +$2,088
culture 4% −$9
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -7.0% -15.9% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 82 +0.4% -9.1% 7% 4% -8.4%
all 150 +4.9% -5.1% 23% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 9% -8.5%
10% -14.2% 9% -17.3%
15% -22.5% 8% -25.3%
20% -30.1% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,738) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$8 · ×10.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized+$2,012
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses34 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,153
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $254 $255 +$1 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $255 $254 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $313 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2,313 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,525 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,316 −$6 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $652 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,925 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,372 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,603 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $288 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $427 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,607 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $332 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $311 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,679 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,565 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $620 −$1 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $58 +$30 +52%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $34 +$44 +129%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $966 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $5,037 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,464 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $3,051 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $917 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,593 −$5 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,738 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $762 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $313 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $464 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $464 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $255 26h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $730 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $731 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $718 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $719 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $652 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 5d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $682 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $683 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $532 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $533 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $570 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $571 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $675 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $676 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $683 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $675 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $675 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $450 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $450 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $652 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $653 13d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $651 13d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $652 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $679 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.02 · official $509.02 (match) · 447 history records