Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fea…c93d crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$126 (+23%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% -9.7%
all 34 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 50% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 50% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 47% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 44% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$40 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$14 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$66 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$36 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$84 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $135 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $69 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $84 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records