Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5F 0x5fef…cdcb sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$4,160 (-11%) realized −$3,913 · open −$247
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$4,609
sports 35% +$3,835
other 14% −$1,889
world 3% −$1,183
crypto 1% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -61.9% -65.6% 12% 12% +34.9%
all 62 -35.0% -41.2% 26% 19% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 19% -18.9%
10% -46.8% 19% -26.7%
15% -52.0% 18% -33.8%
20% -56.7% 18% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$726 vs −$344 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized−$3,913
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage699d
Avg bet$572
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $487 $435 −$52 (-11%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance Senegal 40¢ 40¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $202 $8 −$194 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $308 −$301 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,881 −$1,850 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $3,001 +$6,137 +204%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 06 $308 −$308 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $280 −$280 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $150 −$150 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $250 −$250 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 29 $50 −$50 -100%
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) Aug 11 $376 +$645 +172%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $135 −$135 -100%
Wimbledon: Khachanov vs. Majchrzak Jul 06 $497 −$497 -100%
French Open: Musetti vs. Alcaraz Jun 06 $231 −$231 -100%
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Swiatek Jun 06 $225 +$200 +89%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $1,279 +$43 +3%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more th Jun 01 $5,350 −$5,350 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? Jun 01 $1,964 −$175 -9%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $4,400 −$1,175 -27%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 01 $53 +$199 +376%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 31 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 30 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? May 27 $470 −$369 -79%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 27 $71 −$56 -78%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 23 $770 −$314 -41%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 23 $720 −$191 -26%
Israel military action against Iraq before November? May 23 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 23 $902 +$462 +51%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $170 −$128 -75%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 12 $480 −$323 -67%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $430 −$69 -16%
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (To Advance) May 10 $85 +$8 +9%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $450 +$681 +151%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Warriors (To Advance) May 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $102 −$72 -70%
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance) May 04 $380 +$620 +163%
Will the Inter Miami win the 2024 MLS Cup? May 04 $42 −$42 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Pistons (To Advance) May 04 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers May 04 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30? May 04 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? May 02 $120 −$120 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 02 $85 +$165 +194%
NBA Playoffs: Lakers vs. Timberwolves (To Advance) May 02 $275 +$225 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 1h
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance BUY Senegal 40¢ $71 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $208 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $501 16d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $185 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 20¢ $154 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 22¢ $123 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $661 30d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,220 30d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 38¢ $200 84d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 37¢ $108 84d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $200 84d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 84d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 66¢ $2,208 116d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $150 150d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes $250 150d
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? BUY Yes $50 150d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 78¢ $3,000 154d
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Swiatek $15 235d
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Swiatek 14¢ $25 235d
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Swiatek 12¢ $60 235d
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Swiatek 27¢ $50 235d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 317d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 317d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 317d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 317d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 317d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 317d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.61 · official $551.61 (match) · 224 history records